I considered buying it when the IPO was but didn’t.
Now I’m looking at the comments here and I’m thinking that perhaps now is the time. Lemmy is usually the number one investment source. Just do the exact opposite what people are saying here and you’ll be rich.
The unlocks are coming soon, so I’d expect it to go even lower. If you are going to buy, the dip is what you want for sure.
80% of the time, they’re wrong every time.
its about to be flooded with insider shares.my guess prices will go down to 30$
The word “value” here is really subjective.
Prime wallstreetbets material
Indeed lol, I should have shorted Spacex
We ain’t seen nothing yet. In 2-3 weeks the Q2 report will release at which 20% of stocks held by employees will be unlocked, which has hit even profitable and not-fantasy-based companies hard in the past. There will also be a wave of resignations from people who cash out and if that takes key people then investors back off even further. My guess is fElon wants the stock to stay high until next summer when he can sell, but he NEEDS it to stay high until November when early investors can cash out. He has borrowed billions from people you wouldn’t want to owe $1 and been delaying and juggling for a few years with tacking together this SpaceX nonsense amalgamation.
In 2-3 weeks the Q2 report will release at which 20% of stocks held by employees will be unlocked, which has hit even profitable and not-fantasy-based companies hard in the past.
When you consider the kind of life changing amounts of money even a few thousand shares sell for at current rates, they’d be crazy not to.
My guess is fElon wants the stock to stay high until next summer when he can sell, but he NEEDS it to stay high until November when early investors can cash out
It’s fallen maybe 12% since the IPO. You’re talking about shares that were trading for a few bucks during the original debt offerings. Marc Andressen has something like a 6000% ROI on his holdings even at current prices.
If this company dropped by 50%, it would still be worth in the $800B range. There’s no world in which current shareholders don’t make fuckoff amounts of profit. The only question is whether we’re talking nine figures or ten.
50% might prove optimistic. The rules that were bent for SpaceX exist for reasons. The August dump will be 4X the shares already in the wild. You are right, employees would be crazy not to sell at current rates. SpaceX employees are probably smart and/or educated enough to read the white papers on all these science fantasy projects and know they are pure fantasy. Cool stuff to fire up investment bros, but not the kind of thing they want to be tasked with trying to make reality. Point being, the floor for what an employee would not sale is going to be really low. True believers might hold, but anyone who smells the BS or just likes money will gleefully sell at 50% of current.
Meanwhile, China is making great strides in VTVL and much cheaper, open source LLMs. The EU is eager to find home grown or at the least not-American tech solutions. Every headline makes SpaceX look less and less likely to make ANY profits, let alone completely dominate supposedly multi-trillion dollar markets.
SpaceX employees are probably not happy about being used as a dumping ground for an AI black hole company. I expect many are counting the days until they can leave.
The August dump will be 4X the shares already in the wild.
So, from 1% of market cap to 2%?
Spread over shareholders who still hold north of 90% of the company?
Meanwhile, China is making great strides in VTVL and much cheaper, open source LLMs. The EU is eager to find home grown or at the least not-American tech solutions.
China (and India and Brazil, among others) are all making huge investments in aerospace. The EU is certainly making a lot of noise, but because everything is privatized to fuck, what you’re left with is guess like Richard Branson paddin wallets while programs like the FCAS flounder.
Every headline makes SpaceX look less and less likely to make ANY profits
Starlink is still the modern word in satellite communication. That’s worth a few hundred billion on it’s face.
Will this advantage last? Idk. Probably not, but maybe.
At a minimum, if you want to be friendly with America, you’ll need to buy from Musk.
Starlink, which is nowhere near worth that much even under a best case scenario (compare to other comm companies), can make money and SpaceX still not make any profits because of the the xAI money pit. Also, no, the advantage will not last. The last 30 years of satellite communications have been one seemingly promising idea after another that fizzled out or was made obsolete. No reason to think that trend will change now, especially not when the Starlink model is extremely resource intensive.
Starlink, which is nowhere near worth that much even under a best case scenario
The existing network plus whatever Elon Musk can launch in the next twenty years, assuming an absence of competition could be a trillion dollar company. When you’ve got a monopoly on military satellite technology in a market full of warring super states, that’s a lot of economic leverage.
I’m deeply skeptical that he’ll have that edge for long. But I can at least interesting someone who thinks it’s worth a gamble.
Who is going to pay the money for there to be a reasonable return on that value? I don’t have Starlink, I have no need for it, since there’s a cable coming into where I live. Sure there’s people that live in remote places that it’s useful for. But that’s not a lot of people.
There are military applications, but Musk is a flake not military wants to be dependent on him. Every country in the world is spending a lot of money to end their dependence on the US defense industrial complex, so there will be alternatives for military purposes.
Maybe it can work in vehicles? But if the price is too high people will just use 5G or just go without access for a while.
Starlink is just a product to fill in some edge cases. It will probably make a steady profit, but there will be competition from Europe and China before too long.
Who is going to pay the money for there to be a reasonable return on that value?
Government militaries, mostly. The Pentagon and it’s NATO allies, militaries across the Pacific Rim, Ukraine, etc.
Is that going to be 20% of stock held by each employee can be sold, or 20% of employees can sell their stock?
If it’s the latter then yes, I can see them cashing out and leaving.
20% of all stocks, specifically those held by employees.
Is musk the first person to lose 1 trillion dollars? Quite the honor.
That’s because it was severely over valued for a company that produces no product and makes no profit.
To be fair it was a solid pump and dump.
You mean creating a worldwide communication system that has to be completely relaunched every half decade that is the exact opposite of profitable isn’t sustainable!?
Actually the Starlink division itself is profitable.
The unprofitable part is Twitter and xAI which got merged in right before the IPO.
SpaceX was actually on the path to being quite profitable, but then Musk tried to hide his two biggest money sinks inside it.
Profitable like Tesla? That is not actually profitable without a big chunk (like a third) of their money from government subsidies.
https://www.congress.gov/119/meeting/house/117956/documents/HMKP-119-JU00-20250226-SD003.pdf
It appears SpaceX may not be as highly leveraged with the government with only 20% of its total revenue from government contracts.
It is interesting to look this up but ultimately what I mean is long term profitability considering they will have to continuously replace their satellites every 5-10 years.
The combining of his companies is a whole other level of fuckery that regulators should have smacked down instantly, but you know reality.
And they’re gonna sprinkle this into our index funds, yay!!
He’s such a loser not even his stock wants to hang around with him
Sadly Here, hé is not a loser. Things happened exactly the way he wanted to. He won big, his idiot fans lost bigger
I wont dispute that he certainly benefited from being able to buy entire countries and pay off any regulatory agency he didnt go at with an axe, but I think we all lost out as a result, not just his fanboys
I don’t know how anyone fell for this pump and dump scheme in the first place.
I do :(. I’m also worried about which of my 401ks bought in to it too
That’s the most outrageous part. The most obviously fraudulent company being given fast track to
s&p 500 (although I just read that decision was overturned)NASDAQ100 just reeks of corruption.EDIT: thanks for the correction. I don’t know much about USA or their economic stuff.
It was NASDAQ100 that let SpaceX in. S&P 500 stayed true to their rules which includes waiting at least 1 year after IPO to include it in the portfolio
I mean you choose your investments for your 401(k). Maybe it is time to learn about which funds you’re invested in and make sure they’re appropriate for your time horizon and risk tolerance.
Hey you condescending asshole, they literally changed the rules to allow this into the indexes.
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401(k) is managed by the employer and you can only pick from the funds they have selected. That really doesn’t leave much choice for most people.
That’s why people should consider doing a rollover into IRA anytime they have a job change and not just rollover into the new employer’s 401(k).
It’s not like it’s stocks. It’s index funds and you can get a list of the funds offered. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an index fund that included SpaceX
Broad-market funds like the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) and the iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT) include SpaceX.
SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq-100, meaning funds that track it, such as the Invesco QQQ ETF, hold the stock.
Benchmarks like the Russell 1000 also hold SpaceX, automatically populating funds like the iShares Russell 1000 ETF (IWB)
I’m not even American and even I know that the level of corruption involved in the SpaceX IPO means that even people who want nothing to do with SpaceX had their investments tied up in SpaceX.
Fanboys
Man before Elon was a public figure it was so easy to fanboy. Reusable rockets is an insane feet of human engineering. At least now we have some competition in the space.
I know that it was the talented engineers at SpaceX doing that engineering and huge publicity subsidies, but it felt like a step forward.
Why can’t Elon just leave SpaceX alone.
i monitor my father investing habits to make sure he doesn’t fall for shit like this, their have been a few times iv been worried to say the least…
It’s unfortunately bigger than just the suckers being suckered. These things also get pumped a lot by “early investors”, whose strategy is to get the stock immediately and sell quickly to take adventage of the initial surge. They increase the demand a lot and contribute to that surge.
he can drop still further
This is the sort of news that achieve nothing and only give this guy visibility
Sell side stock news is usually made to help retail investors lose money. They will pile on to this thing for a few more weeks then reverse it back up to 3 trillion. Rinse wash repeat. And you have infinite money generator 2.0
Insider trading 101 right here
What? A company that is making -5 billion net income lost 1 trillion in market value?!
Its everything I hoped for.
I’d be celebrating this more if it wasn’t the retail investors getting screwed
