• finitebanjo@lemmy.world
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      2 days ago

      I know they’ve tried but does Iran really have any viable nuclear capability? Or is it just like Iraq where the hydro-electric aluminium tubes are justification?

      • Gorilladrums@lemmy.world
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        2 days ago

        They have the capability but they’re not there yet. They’re trying to get there, but every time they make progress Israel bombs them back to square. It’s been an effective strategy to stall Iran’s ability to get nukes.

        • Cocodapuf@lemmy.world
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          2 days ago

          I mean it’s some pretty serious overstepping… Nobody even does that to North Korea, even though they get ever closer to developing a ballistic missile, something capable of delivering a nuke (which they do have). But nobody is bombing NK… Why? Because that’s a fucking act of war!

          Bombing Iranian facilities is just an egregious breach of their sovereignty. If on the other hand, some country tried that against the US, it would be a major international incident as soon as they crossed into our airspace, regardless of whether they deployed a single munition. But if they did hit a target, a completely unproportional retaliatory bombing campaign would ensue.

          And the only reason Israel gets away with this dangerously aggressive behavior is that they have the military might of the US at their back. They believe they’re untouchable because they assume the US will always be an ally. And truth be told, it’s all a terrible policy for their own longevity. Some day, eventually, we’ll have a president with a conscience and a Congress that supports them, and then we’ll stop giving weapons to Israel. And on that day Israel will finally have to take responsibility for their actions, and we’ll see what their neighbors really think of them. Until then, they continue to dig themselves into a deeper hole, convinced that it’s the safest way forward.

        • AreaSIX @lemm.ee
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          2 days ago

          Why are you confidently spouting nonsense all over the place? When has Israel bombed an Iranian nuclear site, ever? When you say “every time they make progress Israel bombs them”, you should be able to at least name a couple of times that has happened, right? Come on, look it up, you should be able to find at least one case. No? Stop spreading info you’ve pulled out of your rectum, people like you are the reason nothing online can be trusted. It’s poison, so please stfu when you have no idea what you’re talking about. This doesn’t make you sound smart, it makes you a nuisance.

      • Not_mikey@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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        2 days ago

        From what I’ve heard, their strategy has been to stall at being 6 months away from a bomb. They could’ve finished their program a while ago if they wanted to, North Korea did it with far less resources. They don’t do it because:

        1. It puts them in the dangerous MAD nuclear game theory with Israel
        2. It would make them into a pariah state like North Korea and close off any possibility of sanctions relief.

        They still want to be somewhat ready though for situations like this where full scale war with Israel is inevitable so if they can survive the war for 6 months they can do a test, establish nuclear sovereignty and get Israel to back off.

        • Cocodapuf@lemmy.world
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          2 days ago

          That’s a really interesting theory, I think it has a lot of merit.

          Honestly though, they should probably just complete the project. i’d bet Israel’s whole attitude would shift once they actually had nukes.

        • finitebanjo@lemmy.world
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          2 days ago

          Let’s not make them out to be saints, either. They’re very squarely aligned witb China and Russia.

          • IndescribablySad@threads.net@sh.itjust.works
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            2 days ago

            To be fair, they really don’t have any other option. They’ve already made the US a long-term enemy both culturally and politically, and, despite that, Iran still seeks to be a key geopolitical player. There aren’t many other avenues for that in the short term, which is all that usually matters for a dictatorship.

            Things will be shaking up in the next few years, so let’s see whether they’ll continue to be perceived as antagonistic to the world at large as the US shifts into goblin mode and khamenei kicks the bucket, hopefully loosening oppression.

            • finitebanjo@lemmy.world
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              2 days ago

              Building Nuclear Weapons solve exactly zero of their problems. Just look at North Korea as an example. I also don’t really like the prospects of another civil war in the Middle East.

              Iran’s core problem in Geopolitics, lack of foreign investment despite an increasingly educated population, is due to their own underinvestment in agriculture and stifled private-sector growth due to government corruption and collusion. Most of their exports are oil and gas in most years. They recently had a multiple year recession where GDP continuously shrank.

              Compare them to other middle eastern regions like Afghanistan which provides the majority of the world’s real Saffron and a hefty sum of Gold, Turkey which exports Cars, or Syria which exports Olive Oil. Iran has the climate and resources to expand and diversify in a lot of sectors but instead it continues to cut government subsidies and increase taxes, it’s just not sustainable.

              • IndescribablySad@threads.net@sh.itjust.works
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                2 days ago

                I honestly don’t know enough about economics to dispute anything you’ve said. I will point out that this dispute is nearly entirely unrelated to nuclear capabilities, though. Were both Israel and Iran to both disarm their nuclear capabilities, they’d both still seek to tear into one another for a host of theology-adjacent reasons.

              • AreaSIX @lemm.ee
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                2 days ago

                Wow, way to try to sound educated while just pulling stuff out of your ass. Under investment in agriculture? Lol. Afghanistan is the major supplier of saffron that Iran should learn from? How about Iran being the producer of close to 90 percent of the total global production. Spreading fake info poisons the information on Lemmy for all. Truly pathetic behavior.

                • finitebanjo@lemmy.world
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                  2 days ago

                  Since you don’t know how to cite sources, the citation on Wikipedia says a BBC article claims Iran produces 90% of the world’s supply but due to sanctions due to their geopolitics and nuclear weaponization project it gets repackaged and sold as products of other countries like Spain, which would probably contribute to my being misinformed if true.

                  However I am not pulling anything out of my ass, Iran cut many former Agriculture Subsidies in the last decade, likely due to the aforementioned sanctions not allowing them to actually sell the product directly.