Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is more confident than ever that time is on his side in Ukraine and believes the Western world ultimately lacks the political will to oppose him, writes Ivan Verstyuk.
I actually don’t think the aftermath is going to be the issue here. The seeming interminability of the situation is.
Unless the West finally commits to the goal of a Russian defeat in Ukraine the situation will keep dragging on until one side collapses. And banking on the Russians being the ones to collapse first seems like an increasingly dangerous proposition, moral aspects aside. The trouble is that realistically, only the US has the arsenal to supply Ukraine right now as the other partners have pretty much exhausted their available stocks. And even with a firm commitment, building up the production capacity to keep Ukraine alive is going to take time which is fast running out for that embattled nation.
If Ukraine can prevail and is fast tracked into the EU, rebuilding it will be almost trivially easy despite the high cost. Because money the Europeans can spare. Arms they cannot.
Ukraine has gotten EU money to buy arms from the EU and most of the have to be made first. Ukraine has placed a lot of orders with that money and they are in production right now. Last summer Ukraine ordered 100 PZH-2000, 60 Krab and France has started CAESAR production at war time level. For air defence there are newly made IRIS-T coming to Ukraine as well as a lot of similar systems. There is a deal with Rheinmetall to set up a tank factory in Ukraine. There is a lot more happening behind closed doors and a lot of the known stuff is German propably because German opsec sucks, but more is coming from Europe. A lot more.
I actually don’t think the aftermath is going to be the issue here. The seeming interminability of the situation is. Unless the West finally commits to the goal of a Russian defeat in Ukraine the situation will keep dragging on until one side collapses. And banking on the Russians being the ones to collapse first seems like an increasingly dangerous proposition, moral aspects aside. The trouble is that realistically, only the US has the arsenal to supply Ukraine right now as the other partners have pretty much exhausted their available stocks. And even with a firm commitment, building up the production capacity to keep Ukraine alive is going to take time which is fast running out for that embattled nation. If Ukraine can prevail and is fast tracked into the EU, rebuilding it will be almost trivially easy despite the high cost. Because money the Europeans can spare. Arms they cannot.
Ukraine has gotten EU money to buy arms from the EU and most of the have to be made first. Ukraine has placed a lot of orders with that money and they are in production right now. Last summer Ukraine ordered 100 PZH-2000, 60 Krab and France has started CAESAR production at war time level. For air defence there are newly made IRIS-T coming to Ukraine as well as a lot of similar systems. There is a deal with Rheinmetall to set up a tank factory in Ukraine. There is a lot more happening behind closed doors and a lot of the known stuff is German propably because German opsec sucks, but more is coming from Europe. A lot more.