Ukrainian forces staged an overnight ambush on a Russian convoy 25 miles inside the international border in Russia’s Kursk province, as the Kremlin declared a federal emergency and said it was transferring extra forces to try to snuff out a four-day incursion that has badly damaged its credibility.
A video circulated by Russian military bloggers showed a destroyed convoy, with bodies just visible inside some trucks, on the E38 east-west highway at Oktyabrskoe, a location far deeper inside Russia than any previously confirmed fighting since Ukraine’s forces crossed the border on Tuesday.
Commentators said the attack, reminiscent of Ukrainian attacks on Russian troops besieging Kyiv in the first weeks of the war, demonstrated an effective hit-and-run strategy, but the incursion appeared likely to draw an escalating response from the Kremlin, and its overall outcome remains profoundly uncertain.
That’s the entire point. Force the Russians to over commit. Then pull back. Depending on how involved the Ukrainians want the area to be they might stick to raiding. Or they could be digging in hard behind the raiding right now, making ready to make the Russians pay dearly for every inch. But either way they know it’s temporary.
Unless the Russians fuck it up so badly the Ukrainians don’t need to leave.
Well if the Russian playbook is the same, they will have to raze their own villages to get them back.
Even if they now activate conscripts to do this, the casualty rate will be high and involve people from all over Russia. So the Russian public will be made aware of the costs.
And Ukranians can do what they do on the eastern front, pull back in defensive manner and concede ground in a controlled manner. Forcing the Russians to remain on the offensive when they actually cannot anymore.
I personally think the Russians are overcommitted already, cannibalizing everything everywhere. We will now see what they can muster from what is left.