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Cake day: June 13th, 2023

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  • With 100 doors switching should give you a 99% win rate.

    You’re essentially concentrating the entire thing into this one vs not this one, and when you initially chose there was a 99% chance it was not this one.

    After Monty opens all the other doors, the odds that the right answer is not this one is still 99% except that now the entirety of not this one is represented by that single other door. The Grand Prize has nowhere else to be, and the odds that you picked it first is still only 1%.

    So, to bring it back down, with three doors, the odds that the right answer is not this one 66%, and we end up exactly where we expected to be.


  • Survived eight years of Catholic school and read the Bible cover to cover. Between the flagrant hypocrisy and neglect in the school system and seeing the contradictions and bullshit in the book with my own eyes (and how nobody in the church even remotely tried to live up to the good parts), I just couldn’t anymore.

    Then I read about the Bible and its history, from the Council of Nicea to the confession letters from later translators. I saw that it’s essentially a multilingual game of telephone weighted with politics, salesmanship, cultural eradication, and so forth, and it really became laughable to me that any thinking person could possibly ever take it seriously again.

    It becomes easy to dismiss the rest when you realize they’re pretty much all telling the same fairytales.