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Cake day: July 15th, 2023

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  • I would disagree. It is still far from being able to tell with clarity if Russia is winning. Plenty of things could still happen. Somehow, we’re often forgetting naval warfare and focus too much on the army/ground level. Ukraine managing to turn the Russian fleet scurrying away from Sevastopol, as it had become too vulnerable for missile attacks, is no easy feat. And they killed the top Russian Black Sea officers (I’m convinced Admiral Sokolov is dead). This gave Ukraine needed breathing room to finally resume grain shipments, which could help Ukraine further finance the war and remove Russia’s stranglehold and ability to blackmail the world from accessing grains.

    Although, how would all these translate to victory on land? Obviously, Ukraine will have more money coming in from exporting grain and other commodities. Might this allow them to buy more and better weapons? An option I see is Ukraine being able to intertidict Russian logistical lines, which they have proven to be pretty adept at. But the question is, would this lead to desired strategic successes and more immediate outcome desperately wanted by the West (we don’t need to know what Ukraine wants because they could keep going forever if they could)? Only time will tell.


  • Well, you’re going to get different responses, many of which are good points, and depending on the person you asked.

    But imo, it is hard to tell. And the best response we can say is: we don’t know. Ukraine retook many territories but so has Russia. Both sides suffered many casualties. The problem with analysing the war is the white noise coming from emotional responses on the events of the war happening at the time.

    When Ukraine was invaded, everyone thought they will capitulate. They didn’t. Kyiv then retook Kharkiv Oblast, everyone thought Russia will surrender. The Ukrainian counteroffensive was hyped, but disappointed many. Prigozhin tried to coup Putin and thought it is the end of Putin, but they’re still here.

    So, the best response to your question is, we don’t know. And that’s the most certain answer you could get and that is not a bad thing. For those who tend to forget, we still have the fog of war shrouding our vision. We don’t know what will happen in many months to come. Hindsight only tends to be 20/20 after an event.

    However, I think the two major considerations for this year is 1. Ukraine had been effective in interdicting Russian logistical lines and sent the Russian Black Sea fleet reeling away from Crimea. Those are Ukrainian strategic gains that are often forgotten and not seen by the mainstream as important, who see ground combat as more important. 2. Though on the other side, the Russian support for Putin is still strong and either they support the war or ambivalent. In this case, Putin won the hearts and minds of Russians to either support or turn a blind eye to the conflict. Propaganda war is as important as military one to convince enough of the public to support it.










  • It’s understandable that the consequences of digital privacy is so nebulous and conceptual that many people don’t give much thought about it. But to put things into perspective, your data goes to data brokers. Anyone could buy your and others’ data from them. There is a case of a female domestic abuse victim who escaped her partner. The partner tracked her down by buying her data from a broker. Insurance companies could also buy your data and discriminate you knowing what your pre-existing health condition is.

    Let that sink in because you never know when your data might be used for malicious purposes. Even if you don’t think your personal information isn’t going to be processed maliciously, you’re inadvertently being part of the collective consent to erode the right to privacy (because in my experience, most people don’t care about privacy). We know that if not enough people complain, the powers-that-be sees this as providing consent. You and others may not see privacy as a big deal, but what about those who will be affected by the lack of it?

    I think at some point, people will only complain more if their personal details are breached. And it might be too late at that stage. As we speak, there is potential of AI being trained and developed to use other people’s likeness and data without their consent. Your childhood picture might be used for something else…