Yes, the general definition is two straight quarters of a declining GDP. However, most economic data is delayed, so you won’t know we’ve hit a recession until it’s already happened. It’s declared retrospectively.
But feel free to correct me if I’m wrong: I’m not an economist (thank God).
GDP growth isn’t the only indicator. There are other macroeconomic indicators to consider including decline in manufacturing output, uptick in job unemployment rate, lower retail sales and higher consumer price index. Bad figures from all, or most, of these in at least three consecutive months trend towards recession. I am not an economist either to warrant more detailed analysis, but I have heard of rumours of recession coming this autumn so I have been keeping an eye on these factors.
Two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2025-advance-estimate
“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June)”
-0.5% in Q1, so no, not a recession yet. Even if it drops in Q3, it still has to drop again in Q4.
Yes, the general definition is two straight quarters of a declining GDP. However, most economic data is delayed, so you won’t know we’ve hit a recession until it’s already happened. It’s declared retrospectively.
But feel free to correct me if I’m wrong: I’m not an economist (thank God).
GDP growth isn’t the only indicator. There are other macroeconomic indicators to consider including decline in manufacturing output, uptick in job unemployment rate, lower retail sales and higher consumer price index. Bad figures from all, or most, of these in at least three consecutive months trend towards recession. I am not an economist either to warrant more detailed analysis, but I have heard of rumours of recession coming this autumn so I have been keeping an eye on these factors.
I mean, they could still release corrected numbers for Q2, but man, that would have to be a hell of a correction to go from +3% to -Anything%.