A survey shows most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under pressure brought by high interest rates.

NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.

Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.

Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.

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High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.

  • trash80@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
    23·
    11 months ago

    The article is about a survey of 38 business economists. They don’t control inflation either.

    NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.

    Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.

    The survey contains such rosy news as:

    Panelists anticipate further slowing in core inflation—excluding food and energy costs—but doubt it will reach the Federal Reserve Board’s 2% target before year-end 2024

    and

    Fewer respondents than in the October 2023 Outlook survey expect a recession within the next 12 months, with more than three in four assigning a probability of 50% or less.

    Neglecting to mention they surveyed 52 persons in October and 40 persons in December.

    https://nabe.com/NABE/Surveys/Business_Conditions_Surveys/October-2023-Business-Conditions-Survey-Summary.aspx

    https://nabe.com/NABE/Surveys/Outlook_Surveys/December_2023_Outlook_Survey_Summary.aspx