Russia has moved to classify key demographic statistics following a dramatic collapse in its birth rate, which has plunged to levels not seen since the late 18th or early 19th century, according to a leading Russian demographer.
For decades, Russia has been experiencing a plunging birth rate and population decline, which appears to have worsened amid its ongoing invasion of Ukraine—with high casualty rates and men fleeing the country to avoid being conscripted to fight.
Projections estimate that Russia’s population will fall to about 132 million in the next two decades. The United Nations has predicted that in a worst-case scenario, by the start of the next century, Russia’s population could almost halve to 83 million.
It amuses me that world leaders pretend to be surprised by declining birth rates. They know perfectly well that it’s because of their and/or their neighbors policies. The environment is being poisoned, and possibly destroyed. People are reluctant to bring a child into this world, and I think they’re right to be.
And even ones that want kids take one look at the economy and their bank accounts, and decide to wait until both look better, because they want to be able to afford the kids a happy childhood. The worst thing for population growth is giving people the ability to choose when, if ever, to get kids, and an environment they don’t want to have them in.
Two ways to fix that issue. Which one is used tells a lot.
also, people don’t got the space or the time to fuck
I mean technically you could solve the space issue by making sex less taboo
And finally removing the stigma associated with premature ejaculation. It’s called efficiency, maybe look it up.
speedrun champ
yes but they won’t
Speak for yourself
Nahh people will always bu fcukib’, its just contraception, it’s often why the “moral arm of government” /s aka religions, go after contraception.
Time, sure, but how much space do you need to fuck?
more than the back seat of a car
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But it’s unthinkable for these leaders to change the policies that gave them the power and wealth they desire, so they’re gonna run with it until it falls apart, no matter the cost for everyone else.
“Nooooo! Keep pumping out babies to feed to the capitalism meat grinder!!”
almost all of them avoiding the discussion why its happening instead of trying to enact anti-abortion laws, or punishing peopel for not having children.
Also the average person can’t afford a kid anymore because all the money is hoarded for the rich.
Think its more high house prices and low wages. But the wealthy are more concerned with making money so immigration is at an all time high meaning house prices keep going up even when wages are kept below market value and training is non existent.
I haven’t read recent research on this, but at least until a decade or so ago, consciously not having children is a very small part of this. It’s more about economic outlooks and the immense pressure of expecting both parents of working full time and raising kids at the same time. Or wanting to have two kids, but putting off the decision so long that the chance of not having successful pregnancies rises a lot.
…Wow.
So what’s the tankie angle to this? From that perspective, the war is objectively awful for Russia, even if all the stated war goals are true.
The beloved and benevolent putin is merely protecting the country from the overpopulation seen in the west.
There’s no overpopulation in the west. Fertility rates are too low to maintain the current population.
Well, they didn’t say the angle had to be factual.
You got that right!
That’s why they want all of the immigrants out, they are taking over the white numbers. It’s all fucking racism.
Yes. If they get people angry at immigrants “taking over their land” then the people ignore the real problem (the wealthy elite).
The tankie angle is that it’s NATO’s fault. Would never have happened if mean old west hadn’t invaded Ukraine and genocided Russian-speakers who are ethnically and linguistically identical to Ukrainians but also totally different and superior but also must be defended by daddy Vladdy.
And also Ukraine is an inseparable part of Russia, especially Crimea. Khrushchev was only kidding when he gave Crimea to Ukraine, which isn’t a real country.
And the west totally broke its verbal promise that no one’s ever heard to never allow another country into NATO. But The Budapest Memorandum wasn’t worth the paper it was written on. For some reason.
You just don’t understand Russian history. Russia has a very long memory. When it comes to grievances. Theirs.
You’re just russophobic.
I don’t think I’ve ever gotten one of them to even acknowledge the Budapest memorandum.
Though I do like to point out that they’re the biggest western chauvinists ever if they genuinely think NATO somehow forced putin into emptying Russia’s soviet stocks of vehicles and ammo in the most disastrous invasion in recent history.
Right? It makes Afganistan (the Soviet and US one) look like nothing. A calamity doesnt even begin to describe it.
Ugh, you said that way too well.
Still (again, rolling with the reasoning), it’s an existential problem, no matter who’s fault it is or how much of a victim they are or how much fatalism they’ve accepted…
You forgot “only a Russian can understand a Russian”
And Azov battalion. 😐
So what’s the tankie angle to this?
“Sure this news is bad, but what about this non sequitur?”
“see! Putin is pro environment! Less people is better!”
Ah, the Genghis Khan defence. Bold move!
“Can’t have racism if there are no remaining races!”
war is always bad for the working class. nothing new here.
Even a victory is strategic defeat for Russia.
Honestly, few things are more Russian than being defeated.
The takeaway is that the already catastrophic demographic issues they were facing are becoming pointedly worse because of how they’re conducting the war, amongst other things
Are you really claiming that sending healthy young men into the meat grinder is detrimental to birth rates? No wonder why they need to kidnap Ukranian children.
I don’t think they need to, they just recognized an opportunity to get better children without having to figure out how to make better ones themselves.
Tankie angle: Any nation that becomes wealthy has the issue of declining birth rates. Putin is just soooooooooo great of a leader, he made every single Russian a trillionaire over night. Everything is better under Putin. Why can’t you see the objective truth? Russia is better than any other nation. That’s why I live in Europe and never intend to return. I don’t see the problem here. Banned for being a reactionary pig. Give money to me.
It’s all a consequence of Western decadence, of course.
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Tf does tankie even mean at this point? As a communist, I’m not on the side of any state, I’m on the side of the people dying needlessly in both countries. Anyone who identifies themselves as a communist and has more than 2 brain cells should know that this isn’t a football match where you root for your favorite team. Aside from the fact that russia isn’t the USSR anymore anyway, it’s just another capitalist country. Both governments suck but the Ukrainian one wasn’t at fault for this war at all.
“Tankie” means “person who, in a confrontation between citizens and tanks, roots for the tanks”. It’s more a reference to a person’s underlying authoritarianism rather than communism per se. The main reason it’s conflated with communism/marxism is because capitalism has, conceptually, staked a claim to the protectorship of individualism, which is assumed to be desirable. And because this claim is unchallenged, anything which stands against capitalism is assumed to therefore be inherently authoritarian. There is some merit to this claim and these assumptions, but to what extent, I couldn’t say. I’m not that smart.
I mean, billions of people would disagree with you. Many would say Ukraine and their western backers are at fault.
But theoretically, I am struggling to picture how Russia’a war goals (again, accepting every reason for its continuation from Russia) could possibly be beneficial to Russia, and the um oppressed Ukrainian people, in light of this measurable effect on demographics. Whatever the reason for Russia staying in Ukraine is, even with the most extreme sympathetic view of Russia and their position, it is clearly not worth it, and they should just capitulate an pull out for their own benefit.
and they should just capitulate an pull out for their own benefit.
Sounds like they’re already pulling out too much.
Both governments suck
lmao
it looks like thier content, is more like conservatives than not, probably a con disguised as someone on the left?
They would probably agree
step 1: send your men to a pointless war
step 2: potential mothers realize their sons would only be meat in the meat grinder
step 3: nobody wants to have children anymore
step 4: be confused??Don’t forget removing any relief for people having kids. And dissolve their quality of life. That always goes over so well in completely diminishing any chance of population growth. Just ask Kim jung un
But if your child dies in a pointless war we can offer you a satchel of potatoes. Is good, yes?
In at least one woman’s case, Putin offered her an actual meat grinder. No joke.
step1.5; men fleeing to other countries to avoid war.
Kinda rough to have babies if most of your men are being turned into fertilizer.
Russian meat to sunflower oil pipeline
Invades the breadbasket of Europe, accidentally makes their crops even better.
My vaginas baking equipment would shrivel up too if Putin was my leader. Much like it’s reaction to Americans leadership.
My dick would also go quite limp since even having sex feels off with such bullshit on top.
Looks like death rates are up though.
It’s the Russian resistance’s long game: in 10 years, there won’t be enough young people left to send to die at the front, so the war will naturally peter out.
Piotr out
Even russian women don’t like russians.
I think the implication is actually that there’s a marked dropoff of eligible young Russian men. To preserve a generation, Russia might soon need to use more North Koreans on the Ukrainian front, but that comes with its own problems and risks.
It’s weird that Putin’s avoiding peace negotiations, as he more than anyone needs to find a way to scale back the war effort before his hold on power begins to waver. I get that he needs to save face while doing so, but he’s not gonna get conditions more favorable than a Trump administration, so the clock is ticking.
Consider that he might not want it to end. If it ends, a wartime economy is no longer an excuse/distraction and he’d have to contend more with the disaster he’s created.
i think kim stopped givign greedy putin more orcs. putin is running out of ethnic russians sooner or later.
No one wants to live in putins world
Shit i mean meow
No one wants their children to grow up in a corrupt Oligarchy.
If AI and robots will take over so many jobs, why is a declining birthrate a bad thing, in the long term?
Because current society is built on the assumption that around 4 workers will support 1 person with social benefits like retirement money, healtcare or unemployment benefits. Robots are already used in many factories but don’t pay any of those. The robots will produce goods cheaper than humans, however corporations will own the robots, and still charge you the same price for the goods while receiving a larger margin.
So… you’re saying that… capitalism is the problem???
because all wars are a war of attrition. the country with the largest military or the deepest pockets always wins.
depends on where its decling, if its only like elderly left and the young not reproducing thats would be a problem.
I don’t think ruzies are worried about technologies they can’t even afford.
That’s not unique to Russia. Birth rates in developed nations have been plummeting across the board. The only reason the US was escaping it and hanging out around replacement was because of immigration, and, well, I don’t know if you’ve been keeping up with the news lately, but it seems like that’s going to change.
There’s lots of reasons driving demographic collapse, but I don’t think war is one of them. South Korea is usually heralded as the shining example of demographic collapse because their birth rate is the worst by far, and it generally seems to be the case that as economies becomes more “advanced”, women have less time and supports to focus on motherhood, and so just choose not to have kids. I put advanced in scare quotes because it seems to me that a truly advanced economy wouldn’t footgun itself with rapid demographic collapse. Not to say that the trend shouldn’t be towards a smaller population that will tax the Earth’s resources less, but the way to get there safely for civilization isn’t by falling off a cliff.
Other countries also have the problems with the birth rates, but Putin is accelerating that. Murdering and crippling his young men in a senseless war. Keeping millions of men in the army away from home, far away from their girlfriends. Pushing people to leave the country, if they can. The problem might be there without Putin, but the war is making it so much worse
Russia has a unique problem, and it is war. Just not the war in Ukraine by itself.
WWII was absolutely devastating to the Soviet Union’s population. Tons of “excess females”, which means there were so many men killed that women could not find a husband. The baby boom did not happen there; kinda the opposite. This affects both modern Russia and Ukraine.
Every 20 years or so, there is an “echo” of that loss in their population pyramid. It’s a drop in
birth ratesnew births from a relative lack of young adults starting families for part of the cycle. The echo reduces with each cycle, of course, but one of them is hitting right now. Putin is now amplifying that echo by having another war with such high losses.Edit: clarified some wording.
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it is somewhat in line what china is doing, making threats of invading taiwan, and the south sea, as a distraction to thier population decline. if they are tyring to boost births now in china, its already a bad sign.
I have thought long and hard about having a kid. The only positives are some happy moments, my parents getting a grandbaby, and having someone to help make sure I don’t get taken advantage of when I’m old (I believe it is my financial responsibility to plan for myself but I know my brain may decline). Then I think of the negatives. The money, the loss of sleep, the loss of autonomy, the loss of time, it’s just all so so much. My life would get substantially worse.
Then I think about adopting someone older than a baby, and it’s an interesting idea, I don’t feel a need to spread my genes, but it’s the same thing. Then I think maybe adopt a teenager, it’s not as long of a commitment. But by this point it’s such a nasty equation of tradeoffs and I never want a child to be thought of that way. Plus, I really don’t think I have the heart or patience for adopting an older child.
So the only real thing I feel like I’m missing is having someone to make sure I’m not a victim of elder abuse. I’ll just try to keep getting you get friends and keep them close. I’m 33. My youngest close-ish friend is about 22. If I keep making young people my friends then hopefully if I’m in the nightmare scenario of mental decline and my spouse has passed that one of them can check up on me when we’re both old. That seems less shitty than adopting a child for that reason.
If you like working with kids, you could become a Big Brother or Big Sister too. They’ll remember you. ❤️
I’m a parent. I’m not going to try and sell you on having a kid; don’t do it unless you know you want to. What I’m about to say isn’t trying to sell you on parenthood or making apologetics, but just sharing my own personal experience having thought of almost all the same things you’ve thought and then crossed the bridge anyway. I figure that parenting really isn’t about what you get out of it, and you do get stuff out of it- the love, the experience, the ups and downs, someone to depend on and who depends on you. In a lot of ways it’s a microcosm of the human social experience in that you much more personally experience the things that make up existing with others in a society. You don’t necessarily need kids the same way you don’t necessarily need a significant other or a circle of friends, it’s just that humans are, by our nature, social creatures, and we’re almost always better off with richer social connections in our life than not. Yeah, you definitely do lose stuff; take autonomy, it’s kind of similar to how you lose a certain degree of autonomy when you get into a serious long term relationship, only you really shouldn’t break up with your kids if they piss you off. If that tradeoff isn’t for you, that’s cool!
Everybody’s different, but my kids have motivated me to get involved in politics (beyond just voting) at the local level and try to start planting trees whose shade I may never get to enjoy. It made me think hard about the kind of world that we’re leaving to them, and about what responsibility I have as a parent to do what I can to make that world a better place. I don’t expect anything from them; if they move away to live their life, that’s fine, I trust them to use their best judgment and live their life how they see fit, and just knowing that they’re depending on us to do everything we can for them has really motivated me to think differently about things in ways that I believe are generally positive. In case you’re curious about it, you could always try hosting an exchange student. It’s about the lowest commitment way to be a parent to someone, especially since they’re typically older teenagers. If you hate their guts, you can always ask the host organization that they be placed elsewhere. I’ve hosted I think eight exchange kids, and in hindsight, I don’t regret a single instance, even for the kids we didn’t get along with and had to place elsewhere.
I blame Emmeline Pankhurst!
Well, not really.
“Allowing women to work” turned into “expecting women to work” and is now “two people’s wages are required to have a roof over your head”.
House price and rent caps would be marvellous, but no government is brave enough to shatter the teetering mess of economics that is built on it all. It should never have got to this point, and nobody wants to stop it getting worse. We need to bring the cost of housing down. Build more. Prevent prices rising. Hard caps on rent for basic properties. If not enough basic properties exist in an area, mandate they must be built instead of luxury expensive properties. Bring back council houses.
This might be a good time to pitch looking into joining or starting a local chapter of Strong Towns. They’re a local-first advocacy group rooted in the premise that our cities are broken because we’ve been building them badly for nearly 100 years now. Strong Towns aims to restore cities as places that are built first and foremost for people to live in. As I’ve gotten deeper into this, it’s really shocked me how much of the blame lies nearly exclusively with municipal policy and political inertia (politicians sticking with doing things the established bad way because that’s the established way and they’d rather have a bankrupt, unlivable city than risk changing what they know). The good news is that municipal policy is probably the easiest, most accessible level of policy to effect, and it has the most direct and immediate impact on your life and the lives of people around you. Affecting good urban policy to make our cities livable is what Strong Towns is all about.
You might also look at the Leadership Council for Justice and Accountability. They’re another local-first group that focuses on all forms of justice for lower-income communities.
Population will fall to about 132 million in the next two decades
Which means that it already is that low. If you don’t count the parts of Ukraine that Russia thinks it owns and the hundreds of thousands of young people who fled the country earlier in the war.
it was 144mil a couple years ago.
2-3 millions are dead or have fled for what I know.
But a birthrate at 1.5? That’s bad news, 0.6 lower than the replacement level (2.1) so every new generation will be 30% smaller!
yea putin, fuck the world up and then complain that people are not making kids. we will all die in our own filth when the infrastructure collapses and you can wipe your ass with all that money and power
If they classify it, it means it’s a lot worse. Ukraine should send more steriliser over to russia.
Ukraine didn’t cause Russian men to lose their balls, they gave those up willingly.
